Pop Economy!

This is either a genetically-engineered protein with the potential to save millions of lives, or the molecular structure of a highly toxic nerve agent-- so help me I've lost my notes and can't remember which.

They say we share more DNA in common with other species than with each other.  If there’s any chance it means I’m not related to this guy, I’m all in favor.  Having said that, you need to patent your own double-helix my friends, because personalized medicine is the wave of the future.  According to this Special Report from Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News (did you get your copy yet this month?) the cost-saving potential of just three demonstration projects might exceed $6.2 Billion per year.

For example, according to the study’s authors “Genomic Health’s Oncotype Dx is a test with compelling cost-saving potential. It is used to predict chemotherapy benefit for patients who have node-negative, estrogen receptor positive (node-, ER+) breast cancer. By averting unnecessary chemotherapy, the test has been shown to save about $2,000 per patient. Extending this cost savings to the roughly 100,000 new cases of node-, ER+ breast cancer in the U.S. each year, this test could save the U.S. healthcare system up to approximately $200 million a year.”

The report continues, “Genentech/Roche’s Avastin costs $50–$100,000 per year of treatment but works in fewer than 50% of patients. Given that Avastin may generate $12 billion in peak sales, this low rate of efficacy translates into billions of dollars in misdirected healthcare spending. A test for Avastin response, such as that in discovery by BG Medicine, could save the system as much as $6 billion per year if all nonresponders could be removed from the treatment pool. Assuming that a test of this sort is introduced at the beginning of 2013 and is 100% adopted, cumulative savings of $40 billion could be realized by 2019.  This scenario, in which a drug with high sales but low efficacy is targeted by diagnostics companies, may become a pattern in the near future, multiplying cost savings.”

Them Duke Boys Never Paid a Traffic Ticket, Depriving Hazzard County of Desperately Needed Rickety-Bridge and Ramp Repair Funds.

The old saw goes that if we outlaw guns, one day only criminals will own guns, and that’s why this story affects you, dear reader.  According to a recent story in The Washington Examiner, D.C Police Chief Cathy Lanier has denounced those “cowardly” Apple iPhone users for taking advantage of an app which circumvents both speed traps and red-light cameras.

The numbers are a bit sketchy from the article, since it indicates that $1 Billion was generated for DC during fiscal years 2005 to 2008 from photo radar tickets, which is on the order of $250 Million a year if we include all 4 years.  But one sentence later it says that Montgomery County expects to raise just $29 Million from red light and speed cameras this year, which is smaller by nearly 10x an order of magnitude.  Before I can extrapolate this data to the entire USA I’ll need to fact-check this!  Fortunately, I’ve located a useful– if inappropriately named– site devoted almost entirely to photo enforcement: The Newspaper.

Leaving aside for the moment the incontrovertible evidence that these cameras neither reduce accidents nor have an appreciable impact on speeding, most of us realize they are “sin tax” cash cows.  The Newspaper.com hints at some tantalizing revenue figures.  Albuquerque, NM: “All together, the city collected $10,611,397 in revenue and handed over $2,844,920 to Redflex [an Australian vendor who dominates this market]. This left the city with between $5.8 and $7.8 million in net profit. The precise figure is not known as officials charged as photo enforcement expenses a number of part and full-time police officer salaries as well as the entire administrative hearing office budget. The audit report sidestepped the question of whether the ticketing program has had any beneficial effect on traffic accidents.”  Washington, DC: “Since 1999, [photo] cameras have issued 3,732,234 tickets worth $283 million (as of 3/31/09)”.

And for the entire state of AZ: “Governor Janet Napolitano announced on Friday her expectation that the state’s new freeway speed cameras would generate $90 million in net profit for fiscal year 2009, plus $34 million for the private companies selected to operate the program. In the following year, what the state labels “non tax increase revenue generation” will jump to $120 million, plus $45 million more for the ticket vendors, for a total of $165 million. After 2010 revenue is expected to exceed this amount significantly as the program grows beyond 100 fixed and mobile speed cameras and high occupancy vehicle lane (HOV) ticketing cameras are brought online. The state currently faces a $1.3 billion deficit. “This budget shortfall is an opportunity to make government more efficient and effective,” Napolitano said in a statement touting a budget that “does not raise taxes.”

So I think PopEconomy! has enough to work with… Read the rest of this entry »

Paper crossword puzzles such as this specimen went extinct in 2009, but some survive in digital captivity

If you’ve ever played Wii Big Brain Academy [NTDOY], then you’re ready for the Big Show now because the kind folks at Post Science Corporation put out a press release last week boldly proclaiming, “Another way to pay for healthcare reform– projected savings of $100+ Billion.”  How could I pass that up!  It turns out I actually recognize the name Posit Science since I once worked with a company who ran a pilot with one of their products (and made similar claims).  Their specialty is computerized brain fitness exercises: “More than 30 articles in leading science and medical journals show that in randomized controlled trials the company’s patented technologies significantly increase processing speed, improve memory and attention and enhance quality of life.”

Based upon a trial funded by the National Institutes of Health, the company most recently studied over 2,800 seniors aged 65+, divided into 3 groups (and a control group), employing just ten hours of brain fitness training over 6 weeks, then followed for 5 years.  One year after receiving the training, participants healthcare costs were predicted to be $244 less per patient than in the control group.  A full 5 years out, even with no further follow-up training, costs were still lower by about $143 per patient per year.

“Our results have important health policy relevance,” said Frederic Wolinsky, PhD, of the University of Iowa who was lead author on the article. “The reduced costs were equal to about three-to-four percent of annual healthcare costs for Medicare patients at the time of the study.”  As the number of Medicare enrollees grows from 44 million to 61 million over the next 10 years, this represents more than $100 Billion in savings, and hence the number Posit Science is crowing about.

In terms of our Official Ledger, I’m not gonna worry to much about those later years right now…let’s just figure that in the first year there’s 44 million Medicare enrollees each saving $244 per year in healthcare costs.  I’ll credit $10,004,000,000 to the Ledger.  There’s just one thing that’s gnawing at me…oh yeah.  The Brain Fitness program retails for $395 per person.  Looks like we’re going to have to make this one up on the back end…